Padres, last 5 games: ERA 4.40, worse than 3.99 (this season).
Brewers, this season (162 games): walk rate 10.8% (Brewers lineup, 1st of 5, NL Central Division) vs 9.3% (Padres lineup, 2nd of 5, NL West Division), more patient.
Starter conflict: ERA 0.00 (Brewers, Jacob Misiorowski) vs 8.78 (Padres, Robbie Ray), last 3 pitching appearances, edge Brewers.
Starter conflict: FIP 2.06 (Brewers, Jacob Misiorowski) vs 4.71 (Padres, Robbie Ray), this season, edge Brewers, recent ERA, season ERA and season FIP each favour Brewers.
Brewers, last 5 games: bullpen index 141 vs 124 (Padres pen), stronger pen.
ERA 2.74 vs 4.29 (Padres pen), better.
WHIP 0.70 vs 1.38 (Padres pen), better.
Padres, last 5 games: staff home runs allowed 4 vs 8 (Brewers staff), allows fewer.
If this carries on, the pick, the Brewers, is at risk.
Otherwise the pick's footing holds: Brewers, last 5 games: ERA 2.40 (Brewers) vs 4.40 (Padres), better.